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Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity. 

Abstract How repeatable is evolution at genomic and phenotypic scales? We studied the repeatability of evolution during 8 generations of colonization using replicated microcosm experiments with the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum. Based on the patterns of shared allele frequency changes that occurred in populations from the same generation or experimental location, we found adaptive evolution to be more repeatable in the introduction and establishment phases of colonization than in the spread phase, when populations expand their range. Lastly, by studying changes in allele frequencies at conserved loci, we found evidence for the theoretical prediction that range expansion reduces the efficiency of selection to purge deleterious alleles. Overall, our results increase our understanding of adaptive evolution during colonization, demonstrating that evolution can be highly repeatable while also showing that stochasticity still plays an important role. 

Despite growing calls to develop data science students’ ethical awareness and expand human-centered approaches to data science education, introductory courses in the field remain largely technical. A new interdisciplinary data science program aims to merge STEM and humanities perspectives starting at the very beginning of the data science curriculum. Existing literature suggests that humanities integration can make STEM courses more appealing to a wider range of students, including women and students of color, and enhance student learning of essential concepts and foundational reasoning skills, such as those collectively known as data acumen. Cultivating students’ data acumen requires a more inclusive vision of how the knowledge and insights generated through computational methods and statistical analysis relates to other ways of knowing. 

When managing natural systems, the importance of recognizing the role of uncertainty has been formalized as the precautionary approach. However, it is difficult to determine the role of stochasticity in the success or failure of management because there is almost always no replication; typically, only a single observation exists for a particular site or management strategy. Yet, assessing the role of stochasticity is important for providing a strong foundation for the precautionary approach, and learning from past outcomes is critical for implementing adaptive management of species or ecosystems. In addition, adaptive management relies on being able to implement a variety of strategies in order to learn—an often difficult task in natural systems. Here, we show that there is large, stochastically driven variability in success for management treatments to control an invasive species, particularly for moderate, and more feasible, management strategies. This is exactly where the precautionary approach should be important. Even when combining management strategies, we show that moderate effort in management either fails or is highly variable in its success. This variability allows some management treatments to, on average, meet their target, even when failure is probable. Our study is an important quantitative replicated experimental test of the precautionary approach and can serve as a way to understand the variability in management outcomes in natural systems which have the potential to be more variable than our tightly controlled system. 

Abstract Rapid environmental change presents a significant challenge to the persistence of natural populations. Rapid adaptation that increases population growth, enabling populations that declined following severe environmental change to grow and avoid extinction, is called evolutionary rescue. Numerous studies have shown that evolutionary rescue can indeed prevent extinction. Here, we extend those results by considering the demographic history of populations. To evaluate how demographic history influences evolutionary rescue, we created 80 populations of red flour beetle,Tribolium castaneum, with three classes of demographic history: diverse populations that did not experience a bottleneck, and populations that experienced either an intermediate or a strong bottleneck. We subjected these populations to a new and challenging environment for six discrete generations and tracked extinction and population size. Populations that did not experience a bottleneck in their demographic history avoided extinction entirely, while more than 20% of populations that experienced an intermediate or strong bottleneck went extinct. Similarly, among the extant populations at the end of the experiment, adaptation increased the growth rate in the novel environment the most for populations that had not experienced a bottleneck in their history. Taken together, these results highlight the importance of considering the demographic history of populations to make useful and effective conservation decisions and management strategies for populations experiencing environmental change that pushes them toward extinction. 

Soil nitrogen (N) availability is critical for grassland functioning. However, human activities have increased the supply of biologically-limiting nutrients, and changed the density and identity of mammalian herbivores. These anthropogenic changes may alter net soil N mineralization (soil net Nmin), i.e., the net balance between N mineralization and immobilization, which could severely impact grassland structure and functioning. Yet, to date, little is known about how fertilization and herbivore removal individually, or jointly, affect soil net Nmin across a wide range of grasslands that vary in soil and climatic properties. Here, we collected data from 22 grasslands on five continents, all part of a globally replicated experiment, to assess how fertilization and herbivore removal affected potential (laboratory-based) and realized (field-based) soil net Nmin. Herbivore removal in the absence of fertilization did not alter potential and realized soil net Nmin. However, fertilization alone and in combination with herbivore removal consistently increased potential soil net Nmin. Realized soil net Nmin, in contrast, significantly decreased in fertilized plots where herbivores were removed. Treatment effects on potential and realized soil net Nmin were contingent on site-specific soil and climatic properties. Fertilization effects on potential soil net Nmin were larger at sites with higher mean annual precipitation (MAP) and temperature of the wettest quarter (T.q.wet). Reciprocally, realized soil net Nmin declined most strongly with fertilization and herbivore removal at sites with lower MAP and higher T.q.wet. In summary, our findings show that anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, herbivore exclusion, and alterations in future climatic conditions can negatively impact soil net Nmin across global grasslands under realistic field conditions. This is important context-dependent knowledge for grassland management worldwide.